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Insights & Manager Commentary

Churchill Management Group Monthly Market Update

by Craig Love, on April 05, 2023

  • In the less than a month since the March 10 Silicon Valley Bank failure, stocks are actually up over five percent. Go figure. 
  • It appears that any news that may create a theory where the Federal Reserve slows its interest rate increases is happily embraced by markets.  
  • Leading the charge have been the newly designated “safe haven” large Tech type stocks. 
  • After a nine percent correction from February to early March, the market has found some footing and has returned to where it was at the end of January. 
  • It is actually a lot like we have been expecting, a back-and-forth market as investors try to make sense of all the economic news before them.
  • Fundamentally, little, if anything, has changed. Earnings are still a concern and inflation is still high, though definitely declining. 
  • The Technicals in the major indices have been resilient. After breaking out in early February, the market backed and filled into March, ultimately seeing a pullback that was greater than most market technicians would have liked.
  • The positive was that all of the major indices held their December lows. 
  • The narrative within the market continues to change quickly. At present, we believe that this behavior is likely here to stay until the incoming data can determine with a high level of confidence whether the Fed can manage to tame inflation without killing the economy in the process.
  • We will adjust our exposure levels accordingly, but some patience is likely appropriate. 

Regards,

CHURCHILL MANAGEMENT GROUP

Source: Churchill Management Group

info@churchillmanagement.com 

** This report is meant to inform the reader of our current market opinion, which we, as professional money managers, use in our decision-making. It should be noted that stock market and bond market data are subject to varying interpretations and any one interpretation will not necessarily guarantee investment success. The information obtained from the sources specified herein and used as basis for our current market opinion is believed reliable, but we do not guarantee the accuracy of such information.

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